The monsoon has reached the halfway mark after a season of striking contrasts, with a disastrous June being followed by a reasonably productive July, traditionally the wettest month. The uneven performance has reflected the constant tug-of-war between the monsoon and a steadily strengthening El Niño.
The second half of the season could tell a different story. With August, the second rainiest month, and September, when the monsoon begins its withdrawal, still to come, global weather models indicate that El Niño may finally begin to exert its full influence on India’s rainfall. The first signs of that shift are already emerging.
Rainfall to weaken
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects that the belt of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Central India, West India and the west coast will gradually weaken and migrate northwards. Focus is then expected to shift to the Himalayan states of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the adjoining foothills and plains of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the North-East and parts of East India.
The evolving pattern supports that outlook. A rain-bearing low-pressure area over south-west Rajasthan has weakened, leaving behind a circulation over central Rajasthan. Its interaction with a prevailing western disturbance over the Jammu region may trigger widespread rain in the region over the next few days.
Western disturbance
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says a fresh disturbance would affect the region from Tuesday. Equally significant is the changing position of the monsoon trough. It now stretches from Bikaner to Delhi, Lucknow, Patna and eastwards towards Manipur. Its eastern end has shifted completely over land, effectively disconnecting the Bay of Bengal, the principal nursery of rain-bearing ‘lows’.
There is little prospect of the trough being pulled back over the sea until the next ‘low’ forms. Even so, the trough’s alignment over land will continue to generate rainfall over the Himalayan foothills, the northeastern region, eastern India, and stretches of the east coast, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. This is also the normal pattern of the monsoon during a weakening phase.
Rainfall forecast
Against this background, the IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh for the next three days; Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for six days; western and eastern Uttar Pradesh for four days; and Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab for three days.
Over East India, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Odisha and Jharkhand for the next six days and over Bihar for three days. As usual during a weak monsoon phase, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Monday, over West Bengal and Jharkhand for three days, and over Bihar for six days.
Lightning, thunderstorms
Moderate to intense lightning activity is also expected over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar and Jharkhand on Monday, extending to the plains of West Bengal during the following three days. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are likely to experience thunder squalls with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr, for five days beginning Tuesday.
In the North-East, isolated heavy rain is forecast over Arunachal Pradesh for three days from Wednesday; Assam and Meghalaya on Monday and again for two days from Wednesday and Saturday; and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Monday and for four days from Wednesday. Very heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday; and Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Tuesday.
South India rains
South India will also remain under the influence of scattered monsoon activity. Isolated heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka on Monday, while Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive heavy rain on Monday and again for three days from Thursday.
Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, North and South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for the next six days, with Lakshadweep likely to receive rain for three days from Thursday.
In Central India, isolated heavy rain is likely over Chhattisgarh for the next six days; West Madhya Pradesh for three days from Thursday, East Madhya Pradesh for four days from Wednesday; and Chhattisgarh for six days beginning Monday. Rainfall may be fairly widespread to widespread over West Madhya Pradesh for two days from Friday, East Madhya Pradesh for five days from Tuesday, Vidarbha for three days from Thursday,
Published on August 3, 2026