India revises kharif 2026 fertiliser demand amid monsoon uncertainty and El Nino risk
India has reduced its fertiliser requirement for the kharif 2026 season following a downgrade in monsoon forecasts, with authorities taking steps to secure supplies and minimise agricultural risk.
Fertiliser targets recalibrated as weather volatility loomskharif 2026 season, reflecting a more cautious approach as meteorological forecasts warn of a weak monsoon. This move, undertaken after detailed discussions with state administrations, signals heightened preparedness in the face of El Nino-related weather disruptions that could impact India’s crucial agricultural output.Background: Monsoon dependency and fertiliser demandagriculture is heavily reliant on the annual southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s rainfall and is vital for the kharif crop cycle. Adequate and timely fertiliser supply is central to maximising yields in this period, but this year’s projections have been tempered by signals of below-normal rainfall. El Nino, the warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters, has historically led to suppressed monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent, raising risks for crop productivity and rural incomes.Key changes to fertiliser projectionsMinistry of Chemicals and Fertilizers has reduced its kharif 2026 fertiliser requirement estimate to 38.39 million tonnes, a marginal decline from the earlier projection of 39.05 million tonnes. This adjustment comes as officials weigh the potential impact of erratic monsoon patterns. Specifically, the urea requirement now stands at 19.03 million tonnes, down from 19.40 million tonnes, while Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) needs are revised to 5.62 million tonnes from 5.91 million tonnes. These reductions, representing a 1.9 per cent and 4.9 per cent drop respectively, are intended to better align with the expected agricultural activity under constrained rainfall scenarios.Stockpiles and supply chain reinforcementMonsoon forecast signals heightened riskIndian Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon outlook, projecting rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for 2026, a downgrade from the earlier estimate of 92 per cent. The LPA, calculated from data between 1971 and 2020, stands at 87 centimeters. Should the forecast hold, India could experience its driest monsoon since 2015, when rainfall fell short by 12.7 per cent. The IMD notes a model margin of error of plus or minus four per cent for its projections.Crop risk and agri-economy outlookWay forward: Policy vigilance and sectoral resilience