A surge in monsoon winds, fuelled by powerful weather systems over the western Pacific, is set to keep parts of India under the grip of strong winds and heavy rain even as a rapidly strengthening El Niño continues to erode rainfall across central, western and southern India.
Thunder squalls forecast
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the strong flows have thrown up a cyclonic circulation over south-east Bay of Bengal. A counterpart circulation persists over south Tamil Nadu- Puducherry. Thunder squalls with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr, are forecast over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next five days. The Myanmar Met office in the immediate vicinity sees a low-pressure area taking shape in the region. The vigorous wind regime may also sustain strong surface winds and frequent showers along stretches of the west coast and the interior peninsula.
West Pacific storms
Enhanced winds appear to be linked to a tropical storm Kujira over the South China Sea near the Philippines and Category-2 typhoon Dolphin over the West Pacific. Both systems share the broader monsoon circulation extending into the Bay, effectively strengthening monsoon flows over the region.
These flows have also spawned cyclonic circulations over north-east Bihar, central Assam, north-east Bangladesh, and to the south over South Interior Karnataka. These are capable of generating extensive clouding, thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rainfall, and snowfall over higher reaches/mountains.
El Niño apace
Against this active backdrop, the larger climate signal remains unfavourable. A rapidly evolving El Niño over the equatorial eastern Pacific continues to gather strength. Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service projects the event to strengthen through the end of the year, assigning a 97 per cent probability that it will persist into early spring (February-March) next year. Associated high-pressure pattern over the India is suppressing cloud formation and steadily drying up monsoon rainfall across parts of the country.
Rainfall scenario
The contrasting influences are reflected in the rainfall outlook .Along the west coast, IMD has forecast isolated very heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa on Wednesday and isolated heavy rainfall there on Thursday. Madhya Maharashtra is also likely to receive isolated very heavy rainfall on Thursday as well.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Assam and Meghalaya, with isolated extremely heavy falls on Wednesday. Arunachal Pradesh is likely to witness isolated very heavy rainfall on Wednesday and heavy rainfall on Thursday and again for three days from Sunday. Assam and Meghalaya, along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, are likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall during the next six days.
Southern India
Over South India, isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and Coastal Karnataka during next three days, Kerala and Mahe for four days, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Saturday and Sunday.
Strong surface winds are expected over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, North Interior Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka through Wednesday and Thursday, over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam for four days, and Telangana during the next seven days.
North-West India
In northern India, the monsoon trough passed through Sri Ganganagar, Rohtak, Shahjahanpur, Sultanpur, Gaya, Bankura and thence eastwards towards Mizoram. Unless the eastern end of the trough dips southward into the Bay, conditions will remain unfavourable for formation of a low-pressure area capable of drawing moisture inland and reviving monsoon activity over rain-deficient regions.
Also on Wednesday, a western disturbance persisted in the neighbourhood along Sri Ganganagar-Kurukshetra, though weakened as a trough. Further strengthening the weather system are additional cyclonic circulations over West Uttar Pradesh and central south Uttar Pradesh.
Very heavy rain
Accordingly, IMD has forecast isolated very heavy rainfall over West Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, and East Rajasthan on Friday and Saturday. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh for three days from Sunday; Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for six days; Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on Thursday; West Uttar Pradesh on Friday; East Uttar Pradesh on Thursday; West Rajasthan for three days from Friday; and East Rajasthan on Thursday and again for three days from Sunday.
Published on August 5, 2026